On May 22, 2024, United Kingdom Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called for a surprise election on July 4, 2024, endangering the success of the “Smokefree Generation Bill,” a focal point of his administration.
The bill was introduced by then-Prime Minister Sunak in October 2023 in an effort to “de-normalize smoking” by banning the sale of tobacco products to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009. If passed into law, this piece of legislation would slowly raise the smoking age each year and eventually, it would entirely eliminate the sale of tobacco products in the UK.
The UK’s Smokefree Generation Bill mirrors New Zealand’s Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Smoked Tobacco) Amendment Bill, which was passed in 2022 and bans the sale of smoked tobacco products to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009. The New Zealand law unsurprisingly saw widespread support from the Associate Health Minister as well as other health-focused groups in favor of a smoke-free future, but it also drew criticism from the tobacco industry and tobacco lobby.
Although the New Zealand bill was repealed in February 2024, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello and others continue to defend the bill, stating in her speech, "New Zealand has seen some of the largest drops in smoking rates across the world in recent years, and we want to build on the practical tools and approaches that have worked to date.”
Similarly, the UK bill has also garnered strong support as well as criticism from both sides. The bill unsurprisingly received fairly widespread endorsement from various health charities, anti-smoking groups, and national health organizations.
Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, was also heavily involved in crafting and promoting this bill. According to Cancer Research UK, “Smoking remains the UK’s biggest cause of cancer and death. It’s responsible for an estimated 55,000 cancer deaths in the UK each year – more than a quarter (28%) of all cancer deaths.”
Moreover, Sir Stephen Powis, medical director of the National Health Service (NHS), conveyed in a statement that smoking and tobacco-related illnesses have proven to be a significant issue in UK society, especially given that smoking is so deeply ingrained in European culture, causing a considerable increase in healthcare spending. “Almost every minute of every day someone is admitted to hospital because of smoking,” he said.
Given the global increase in funding and attention towards cancer research and prevention in recent decades, smoking has taken center stage in healthcare discussions. The Smokefree Generation Bill was designed to greatly reduce– and ideally halt– smoking and vaping in the younger generations to prevent long-term illness caused by smoking.
Additionally, as Powis points out, widespread smoking is not only a national health concern but an economic issue as well. This bill promises to save a tremendous amount of money for the UK public healthcare system by limiting and decreasing the number of smoking-related illnesses that require treatment each year. “The government estimates that, under the law, up to 1.7 million fewer Brits would be smoking by 2075, saving billions for the country’s public health system by reducing cases of stroke, heart disease, and lung disease by up to 115,000,” according to Forbes.
Despite the numerous benefits that this bill promises to offer, there is naturally some opposition and hesitancy towards its provisions and objectives. Powis stated that, ideally, the Smokefree Generation Bill would be coupled with increased funding towards smoking cessation services, an area that has historically been underfunded, especially in lower-income areas of the UK. Caitlin Notley, professor of addiction at the University of East Anglia, argues that the bill cannot stand on its own and be expected to “solve” the smoking epidemic in the UK; rather, the government should dedicate the most resources to helping specific groups or parts of society that are most affected by the crisis.
"It is the poorest and most deprived people in our society who continue to smoke tobacco at the highest rates. Tobacco smoking is an inequalities issue,” Notley explains. She argues that without strong and targeted support for smoking cessation services, this gap will continue to grow.
The British Parliament concluded its term with the disillusionment of Parliament, which took place on May 30, 2024. On April 16, 2024, the House of Commons voted to pass the Smokefree Generation Bill, meaning that it faced a vote in the House of Lords before it could officially become legislation.
However, with Sunak’s announcement of the surprise election — Sunak had until January 2025 to call for an election — many correctly predicted that the bill would not be voted on before Parliament shut down, endangering its future viability should power shift into the hands of the Labour Party. It is not explicitly clear why Sunak called for the election early. Some hypothesized that this was a strategic move, as Sunak may have hoped to catch the Labour Party off guard earlier than they expected the election to take place. Regardless, Sunak championed this issue earlier in his term, so the decision to call an early election that may jeopardize the bill’s success was relatively surprising.
Indeed, the fate of the Smokefree Generation Bill seems bleak. Prior to the election, the Labour Party was consistently polling ahead of the Conservative Party and had been since about 2021.
Unsurprisingly, on July 4, 2024, the Labour Party won a landslide victory. As power shifts out of the hands of the Conservative Party after 14 years, Keir Starmer will replace Sunak as Prime Minister and the Smokefree Generation Bill will most likely not be written into law.
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