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On September 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the expansion of Russia’s army by 180,000 troops, marking 1.5 million active service members and 2.3 million military personnel. This is Putin's third time increasing his army since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia is now the second-largest army in the world behind China. The new staffing will come into effect in December. Why has Putin decided to increase his army? Last month, Ukraine invaded Russia’s Kursk Oblast and captured several villages, attempting to gain leverage against Russia in the Russia-Ukraine War. Russia has not faced a territorial foreign invasion like this since World War 2.
Putin’s order to expand the Russian army days after Putin threatened the United States and its NATO allies; Putin explained that they would be risking war if Joe Biden finalized lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles on Russia. NATO, and specifically the United States, has been committed to stopping conflict and wars that threaten the security and stability of its member states. There is also a concern about a future World War 3 and a nuclear war, as Putin has expressed he is not afraid to further escalate the war. Putin explained that if finalized, then this means the NATO countries are at war with Russia, and he will make suitable decisions to counterattack the threats. Since the beginning of the war, Putin has continuously warned the United States and NATO against involving themselves in the Russia-Ukraine War.
British Military Intelligence believes it will be tough for Russia to expand its military due to the losses against Ukraine and recruitment challenges. It’s estimated that Russian forces have lost at least 1,000 military participants every day since October 2022. In September of 2022, Putin ordered a “partial mobilization”. This means that Russian citizens with military experience to conscription, and military reservists could be called up as well. This strategy may be used again, but it doesn’t account for the quality of the troops—bigger does not mean better. The method of “partial mobilization” is the main reason why the casualty rate is so high in the Russian military.
Russia and Ukraine are playing two separate wars as Putin is using a long-war strategy by relying on numbers to slowly but surely take over Ukraine, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is attempting to shorten the war by invading Russia. For example, as a long war strategy for Russia, a war can be expensive, so they have restructured the economy to meet the needs of the military like expanding the production of military goods. To try and shorten the war, Ukraine, 240 miles from Moscow, destroyed a Russian arsenal. Specifically, a Ukrainian drone attack destroyed a warehouse that stored missiles, guided bombs, and ammunition. Though Russia has a much bigger and stronger army than Ukraine, Ukraine has been successful in many of its attacks, especially because of the ability to produce drones domestically.
The United States has committed to stand with the United Kingdom and NATO to support Ukraine. Ukraine depends on NATO for both long-range missiles and satellite data needed for targeting, as it does not have its own technology. The United States also begins to worry about the help Iran and North Korea are providing to Russia with a new supply of deadly weapons due to it leading to more and more deaths of Ukrainian citizens. It also has been a worry for most of the war of a potential nuclear battle, as Putin has threatened dramatic escalation. Since October 2022, Putin has threatened nuclear war if the United States and NATO intervene and aid Ukraine; however, Russia has yet to respond to Ukraine’s aid physically. For example, in September of 2022, Putin annexed parts of the territory that Russia had conquered from Ukraine. He also threatened that he would defend this new land with nuclear weapons. Now, Ukraine continues to push back Russian forces a year later, and Russia has yet to go through with their threats.
Ukraine is waiting for the United States and NATO to allow them to use military weapons that will travel deeper into Russia; however, the United States have been reluctant to allow Ukraine to do so as they fear a major escalation in the war. Currently, Ukraine is allowed to use weapons such as American ATACMS and British Storm Shadows, which are both missiles to attack Russian territory along Ukraine’s border.
The end of the Russia-Ukraine War seems very far away. Russia expanding its army just goes to show that they are not backing down from their initial goal of taking back what they believe to be theirs, Ukraine. The death toll in the Ukrainian War continues to increase and 10 million people have been forced to flee their homes. Russia is looking for a long-term war in order to slowly take over Ukraine, piece by piece.
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