On September 27, 2024, Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim political party and terrorist group based in Lebanon, announced that Israel had assassinated its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who has led the group for over 32 years.
While Nasrallah's assassination has dealt a significant blow to Hezbollah, the group now enters a period of uncertainty and potential reorganization. The killing of Nasrallah, a pivotal figure in the group's strategy, not only exposes Hezbollah's vulnerability to Israel but also raises questions about its future direction.
Shortly after the assassination, on October 1, 2024, Israel announced a ground invasion in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah. The Israeli army claimed that its troops were conducting 'limited raids' in villages near the border, targeting specific Hezbollah strongholds, while aircraft continued intense strikes throughout Lebanon, focusing on crucial Hezbollah infrastructure and supply lines during the invasion. However, the deployment of ground troops into Lebanon carries significant risk, given Hezbollah's substantial arsenal of anti-tank missiles and mines. The group has been preparing to meet Israeli forces in the terrain for years, raising concerns about potential conflict escalation.
Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif denied that Israeli troops had crossed into southern Lebanon and stated that, so far, there had been "no direct ground clashes." But he also added that Hezbollah was "ready for a direct confrontation with the enemy forces that dare or attempt to enter Lebanese territory and to inflict the greatest losses on them." In response to Israel's attacks, Hezbollah launched more rockets and missiles into Israel.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati warned that Lebanon was facing "one of the most dangerous phases of its history." About a million people, or a fifth of the population, have fled their homes in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. According to the Lebanese health ministry, more than 1,200 people have been killed, including more than dozens of children and women. Meanwhile, authorities struggle to keep up with the increased demand for shelter and hospitals.
While Hezbollah is responding to Israel's attacks, the group still has thousands of fighters, many of them having extensive combat experience in neighboring Syria's civil war. The group also possesses a substantial amount of long-range, precision-guided missiles that have the capability of reaching Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities. As the pressure on Hezbollah increases, there will be pressure within the ranks of Hezbollah to use those missiles to attack Israeli territory before they get destroyed, according to an analysis from the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). But at the same time, inflicting mass civilian casualties on Israel could lead to a devastating response from the Israeli army.
In response to Israel's military operation in Lebanon, a host of countries, as well as the United Nations, have urged Israel to cease its operation while emphasizing the importance of reaching a ceasefire as soon as possible. The UN warned that the ground invasion would negatively impact Lebanese civilians; meanwhile, Britain, Spain, and Italy are worried about a more significant regional conflict breaking out. This comes amidst a backdrop of Israel announcing its intentions to conduct limited raids into southern Lebanon against Hezbollah forces and infrastructure that are situated along Israel's northern border after attacks from Hezbollah began in the aftermath of October 7, 2023. For Israel, the raids are part of an effort to push Hezbollah forces away from the northern border so that thousands of Israelis who have evacuated can return to their home in the north.
However, the UN has warned Israel against conducting a large-scale ground invasion of Lebanon. Liz Throssell, a spokeswoman for the UN Human Rights Office, declared, "Too many innocent children, women, and men have been killed, and too much destruction has been exacted."
Israeli officials have assured the United States that their operation will be limited, focusing primarily on pushing Hezbollah forces away from the border. However, some global leaders were concerned that once the Israeli army entered Lebanese territory, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would be drawn into a more significant conflict, potentially escalating into a regional war.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy warned that the cost of a regional Middle Eastern war would be "huge," and that no one wanted to return to the past when Israel was bogged down in the prolonged conflict of southern Lebanon, referring to the 1982 First Lebanon War. The war saw Israel maintain a security buffer zone in Lebanon for nearly 20 years before Hezbollah and other forces pushed it out. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has emphasized the need for de-escalation at the regional level, emphasizing the importance of protecting civilians and ensuring the security of the Italian UN peacekeepers stationed in southern Lebanon. She has warned that a regional war would exact a massive toll on the Middle East and have a devastating effect on the global economy.
To take on Iran and its proxies, Israel is currently taking a maximalist approach to managing conflict by emphasizing the need to "degrade Hezbollah" until it no longer poses a threat to the state of Israel. Similarly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken a similar approach to the war in Gaza.
In the case of a full-scale military conflict between Israel and its adversaries, the result would be widespread devastation on the populations and infrastructures of Israel, Iran, and Lebanon, as well as potentially Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and the shipping industry based in the Red Sea. The most important question for this conflict would be how these countries can manage their strategic interests while avoiding sliding the entire region into a devastating regional war.
According to an analysis by Chatham House, a foreign policy think tank based in the United Kingdom, the future Hezbollah leadership has to grapple with an organization that is active in a war in which the members can barely meet or communicate without being targeted by the Israeli military.
While Hezbollah will not collapse immediately because it still has many active fighters, it will be forced to adjust to survive. A possibility proposed by Chatham House is that Hezbollah could become solely a political entity and hand over its weapons to the Lebanese military to garner support from the Lebanese population. By doing so, Hezbollah no longer poses a threat to Israel's security and is handicapped in terms of its capabilities of launching drone strikes on Israeli territory. In addition, Hezbollah is also able to increase its domestic support among the Lebanese population, who have been living in fear as Israel and Hezbollah continue to exchange military crossfire.
The other possibility is that the organization could continue its action but risk further self-destruction. Within the year 2024 alone, Israel has been able to eliminate the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah's elite Rawdan Forces, Ibrahim Akil, the leader of Hezbollah's southern front, Ali Karaki, and the Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukur. As the war continues, Israeli intelligence officials say that most of Hezbollah's military leadership has been eliminated, and much of the political leadership is either dead or on the run.
On October 29, 2024, Hezbollah announced that Naim Qassem, who had served as its deputy secretary-general since 1991, would succeed the late Hassan Nasrallah as its new group leader.
Unlike Nasrallah, who is admired in the Middle East and other regions—such as the United States and Israel—for oratory skills, organizational abilities, and strategic talent, Qassem is viewed differently. According to Chatham House, Nasrallah's leadership and presence earned widespread respect. However, the Associated Press suggests that Qassem lacks the former leader's charisma and skills.
For Qassem, the impact of the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah is profound. He has to navigate a minefield of challenges, including a blow to its military structure, the exposure of profound intelligence failures, and the potential for rising resentment and frustration amongst a significant number of the Lebanese population. Hezbollah's next steps will have widespread ramifications not only for its future but also for the region.
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