A Radical Notion - Will Florida Flip?

Anthjay, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

As Election Day approaches Americans at a lightning-like velocity, political pundits are deep in the throes of predicting that fateful day’s outcome. Many will base their predictions off the history of electoral outcomes, expecting that recently solid-red states like Texas and Florida will stay red regardless of how controversial Republican-led policies have been in those states.

Yet, some on the outskirts point to two critical issues on the ballot that could cause an Electoral College heavyweight like Florida to flip: the legalization of recreational marijuana use, and state-wide abortion access.

Pundits on the right have called the idea of Florida going blue practically impossible, pointing to the higher number of registered Republicans in the state compared to the number of registered Democrats. And their skepticism is not without cause: Florida has voted in only Republican senators since 2016, the state went for former President Trump in both 2016 and 2020, has consistently elected more Republican representatives to Congress than Democrats, and has had a Republican governor in place since 1998.

However, it must be noted that the state now infamous for its governor's far-right legislative agenda, which includes book bannings, a 6-week abortion ban, and deleting all mentions of climate change from state legislation, went blue for President Obama in both 2008 and 2012.  The opinions of Florida’s voters tipped presidential outcomes in many cases, the most notorious of which being the disastrous 2000 presidential election. That election saw the use of the “butterfly ballot” design, which was so flawed that election officials couldn’t tell who ballots were cast for, forcing a manual recount that would only come to an end with the intrusion of a Supreme Court ruling.

Now, the Sunshine State has turned decidedly right-ward since its time basking in the attention of being a swing state with thirty electoral votes. However, since the rise of Vice President Kamala Harris to the top of the Democratic ticket for the presidency, some have begun to ponder whether Florida might again be up for grabs.

Party leaders like Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried are among the voices speculating about that possibility, stating, “They’re going to be held accountable in November, and if that means we are flipping a lot of seats, it’s because people of our state realize that the Republicans, the MAGA extremists, took us in such a dangerous direction and want to bring new leaders into the fold.”

That kind of thinking comes from just how far-right the policies propagated by Republican leadership in Florida have been, policies that are not generally supported by the public. A CBS News poll from May 2024 found that 65% of voters in Florida believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and even 41% of Republicans in the state believe that abortion should be legal under in all or most cases. While not a majority, that is a large swath of Republican-registered voters that do not agree with effective bans like what is currently in place in their state. Such polling might not have mattered, except for the fact that abortion is on the ballot for Florida voters.

Florida Amendment 4, the Right to Abortion Initiative, asks for a yes or no vote on whether there should be laws restricting or prohibiting abortion access prior to viability, which  typically occurs around 22 weeks of pregnancy. The measure needs a 60% voter approval rate to pass, and its potential success is being frantically attacked by Governor DeSantis as a marker of “the end of the pro-life movement.” 

This is the ballot measure triggering theories from the Democratic side about Florida flipping for the first time since 2012, and may be responsible for Vice President Harris’ willingness to campaign in the state. Christian Ulvert, a Democratic strategist based in Florida, commented on the implication of Vice President Harris’ visit to Jacksonville on June 5th, stating, “This is real…When they make those moves, it means they’re getting ready to make Florida a priority.”

Harris was also set to visit Palm Beach County to speak to voters over the abortion ballot measure, but postponed the trip due to the assassination attempt against former President Trump. More than 11,000 new volunteers signed up for the Harris campaign in Florida, also indicating a stronger presence of political activity potentially being bolstered by the issue.

Abortion ballot measures are also on the ballot in many other states, notably Arizona and Nevada, and if the thinking from Democratic leaders on Florida’s outcome is supported, the tightly-contested presidential election could come to hinge on women’s rights.

Legalization of recreational marijuana is another issue pointed to as potentially driving turnout in Florida, as a ballot measure for the legislation of the drug for recreational use is also on the ballot there. Yet, flipping a state that re-elected Governor DeSantis by a factor of almost 20 points in 2022  will be a large mountain for Vice President Harris to summit, and it will take more than a couple of ballot initiatives to secure the election for Harris. There are 3.5 million voters in Florida who аre not registered with a party, and Harris will need many of them if she hopes to win against a strong Republican turnout.

There was some excitement spread on social media for Democratic voters when The Villages, Florida’s land of the retiree and a historic Trump stronghold, hosted a shockingly large golf-cart rally for Harris. But that excitement was dampened by steadfast Trump voters responding just as strongly, hosting their own golf-cart rally displaying signs proclaiming “I’m voting for the felon”. Republicans in the area scoff at the idea of The Villages or the state of Florida going blue, pointing to how many Republicans have registered to vote as compared to Democrats since 2021. Even with all the uncertain rhetoric around ballot measure impact and polling, one thing remains clear; this election will be close, and it may come down to just a couple of unpredictable states to elect the next President of the United States.